Clairvoyancy and the Economy

In October 2006, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said at a press conference in London that "Independence would be a disaster for Scotland because it would wreck its economy… and take the country backward”. How exactly does he know? Can he see into the future? Furthermore, he omitted two key points essential to the argument, namely: when and for how long exactly?

One of the core arguments put forth by those against Scottish independence has been the tired and fundamentally pointless statement that Scotland would be worse off under independence. This is quite a sweeping statement to make, especially when no one is prepared to put any sort of time-frame for this predicted economic malaise. Exactly when will this tale of economic woe take place and for how long precisely will it last? For all time?

Nobody can predict what the economy of the UK (or for that matter, any country) will be like in 10 or 20 years time. We can do our best to plan ahead but we don’t know. Gordon Brown certainly didn’t foresee the current recession before it arrived. Yet, despite the fact that we cannot predict the future, there are those who continue to make sweeping statements that Scotland is stronger and better-off being part of the Union.

Was it in Scotland’s interest to be part of this strong and “better-off” United Kingdom back on “Black Wednesday” on 16th September 1992 when the British Government was forced to withdraw the Pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) after it lost 15% of its value overnight against the Deutschmark? Soon after this, approximately one million householders faced repossession of their homes during a recession that saw a sharp rise in unemployment. The UK Treasury later estimated the cost of Black Wednesday at £3.4 billion.

Source: Wikipedia